Sep 15, 2018

WEG Dressage By the Numbers and Cross-Country Predictions with Equiratings

Graphic courtesy of Equiratings.

Julia Krajewski & Chipmunk FRH

We thought it would be tough for anyone to catch them in the first phase today and that proved to be the case.

So what about their cross-country record? Well, they have only picked up 3.2 time penalties from their three CCI3* runs in the cross-country and they all came at Strzegom (2016) when they were joint fastest time of the day. They were then inside the time at both Bramham and Blenheim last year. Tryon will be a different test.

Jumping wise for tomorrow they also have solid form. They are looking for their 18th consecutive international clear round and have never had a jumping penalty at three-star level.

Ingrid Klimke & SAP Hale Bob OLD

It was a four-star personal best for SAP Hale Bob and Ingrid, recording 23.4 and beating their previous best at the level which was at Badminton 2017 (24.3).

They’ve been clear cross-country in three of their five CCI4* runs (the blips being Luhmuhlen 2014 when they had 40 penalties and Rio 2016 when they had 20).

Their clear rounds have been impressive, Badminton 2017 and 2015 and Pau 2014, and they average just 1.3 time penalties from these runs. Plus of course, they were one of only four combinations to make the time at the Europeans last year when they took the individual title.

Ros Canter & Allstar B

An excellent test of 24.9 sees Ros currently in the individual bronze medal position and helps Team Great Britain sit in team silver.

This is a combination who were fast across the country at Strzegom last year picking up just 1.6 time penalties - they went on to finish individual fifth there. They also impressed at Badminton this Spring with a fast clear that picked up 6.4 time penalties. That being said they have only jumped clear in two of their four CCI4* starts (the most recent two).

Team World Record

We watched Ingrid’s test with a different record in mind. Her 23.3 score means that the Germans have made the strongest start ever seen by a team in World Championships history. They have taken over the record previously held by Team Great Britain from Jerez in 2002 (see below).

They also have solid back up in Kai Ruder and Colani Sunrise who are looking for their thirtieth consecutive clear cross-country jumping round and Andreas Dibowski and FRH Corrida who, while inexperienced at the level in comparison, are on a similar run of 26 clears in a row. Nice team make up.

The Chasing Pack

Team Great Britain had strong performances from their third and fourth riders to move up into silver medal position overnight as we expected they would. The Brits have won more World Championship Team Golds than any other nation (five total). With lots of experience in the camp they will fancy their chances to be strong across the country tomorrow.

Team USA had a great day in the office with big personal bests from both Phillip Dutton and Lynn Symansky, putting them in team bronze overnight.

It’s worth noting that only two teams have been outside top three after dressage to win a team gold. Canada in 1978 and New Zealand in 1990, both teams sat in fifth after dressage. All other gold medal teams have been in a medal position after dressage. Trends say Germany, Great Britain, or the US for the 2018 title.

The ‘Big 6’ hold the top six placings on the leader board as predicted yesterday but it is very close with less than one show jump, or 10 seconds on the cross-country, covering third to sixth. Expect plenty of movement here tomorrow.

New Record for Ireland

It was the second best ever test for an Irish rider at a World Games, Sarah Ennis (26.3) behind Sasha Harrison and All Love Du Fenaud (23.6 - Jerez 2002). Padraig McCarthy also delivered today the third best ever test at a World Games.

This is the best EVER start to a World Games for an Irish team (87.5). Ireland will sit just outside the top six overnight.

Cross-Country Pointers

No World Championships has ever had a clear jumping rate of over 50%. The current highest is 49.4% at Rome 1998 and closely followed by Kentucky in 2010 with 49.4%. That means we should be surprised if half the field, (over forty riders!) pick up jumping faults. Expect excitement and drama.

Colani Sunrise and Kai RÜDER (GER) are third out and will give you a read in terms of how this will jump. They are looking for their thirtieth cross-country jumping clear round. If they have problems, plenty in this field will be worried.

How many will make the time is the question coming in all evening. Very hard to call from an office in Dublin but the first big reads we will get will be Arctic Soul and Gemma Tattersall. Number five to go and only Classic Moet has a higher speed rating. If they fail to make the time, then it is going to prove very tight. At the moment, we would be looking at:

  • Classic Moet
  • Arctic Soul
  • Cooley Lands
  • Billy The Red
  • Horseware Stellor Rebound
  • Barraduff

Only three teams in World Games history have a team added less than 10 penalties to their dressage score after the cross-country phase – Canada (2010), USA (2010) and New Zealand (1998). Only seven teams have added less than 20 penalties to their dressage score after the cross-country phase.

ABOUT EQUIRATINGS

EquiRatings is an equestrian data analysis company based in Ireland. We work with federations and teams around the world to bring insights and content from data. The company was founded by Irish event rider Sam Watson who will be competing for Ireland (Eventing) at the World Equestrian Games in Tryon.

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