United States Eventing Association

As a person who seldom accepts things on the surface and tends to ask questions and dig for the answers, I found myself looking into the success rates of the entrants in the international Young Horse competitions.

Would you be surprised to learn that just under 20% of the horses that compete in the young horse classes at a prestigious event - the annual Bundeschampionat in Warendorf, Germany - make it to the top of their sports? That’s what FEI official Joachim Geilfus proudly claimed in his presentation in Kentucky last fall. But doesn’t a 20% success rate mean an 80% failure to meet a young horse program’s goal of identifying the upper-level competitors of the future?

As to the percentage of graduates from Young Horse programs that go on to compete at an FEI level, what do you think is acceptable? Would 20% meet your standard or would you expect a higher percentage? Keep in mind that the number of competitors is limited and that the horses all went through various qualifying classes in order to qualify for the FEI World Breeding Championships for Young Horses. Theoretically, they should represent the best of the best as graduates of young horse programs from numerous countries.

It seems logical that in order to have an informed opinion, one should probably first define ‘success’ and then consider what constitutes an acceptable ‘rate’ of success. Since most young horse programs are focused on identifying horses with the potential to compete at the international level, we’ll use FEI results as a marker for success.

It is probably fair to say that the later FEI results of horses that had competed in the World Breeding Championships for Young Horses demonstrate how the competitors did as mature horses, so we can use those results as a means of measuring success.

Aside from such well-publicized graduates from the Young Horse Championships as La Biosthetique Sam FBW (Stan the Man - Halla), who was the reserve champion seven-year-old in 2007 in eventing and 2012 Olympic champion, and Damon Hill (Donnerhall - Romanze), the champion six-year-old in 2006 in dressage and 2013 World Cup Finals champion, what is the real norm? Certainly Sam FBW and Damon Hill are a reason for celebration and a boon to advertising, but are these horses the exceptions or the rule?

In studying the FEI database competition results to the end of 2013 and the available results from the World Breeding Championships for Young Horses from 2007 (dressage and eventing) and 2009 (show jumping), the findings were informative.

Nine of the 14 five-year-old dressage horses and half of the six-year-old dressage horses in the 2007 Championships did not have any FEI career results whatsoever. Only four of the top 14 five-year-olds and five of the top 14 six-year-olds had any FEI results in 2013, which may speak to longevity. How do you feel about those results?

In the 2009 show jumping versions, the percentage of previous Young Horse competitors that had FEI results in 2013 was consistently well above 50% and was actually at 75% for six-year-olds. Unfortunately, full results for 2007 were not available, so longevity is not quite as easily assessed for the jumpers by using 2009 results. However, the five-year-old champion of 2007 shows no FEI results and the reserve champion progressed to grand prix in 2011, the final year with FEI results. The six-year-old champion of 2007 last competed at the 3* level in 2011 and the reserve champion was competing at the 2* and 3* level in 2013. The seven-year-old champion of 2007 was competing at the 5* level in 2013 and the reserve champion was competing at the 3* level in 2013. Are these the sort of results you expected?

In young eventing horses from the 2007 Championships, 48 of the 53 six-year-old entrants (45 finishers) had further FEI results and 17 of those horses were still competing in 2013. But, 30 of the 56 seven-year-old entrants (42 finishers), including seven of the top 10, were still competing at the FEI level in 2013, including the reigning Olympic champion, other Olympic competitors from 2012 and the 2011 Rolex winner. How do these results fit with your expectations?

Based on these samples, it appears that the more judging involved, the lower the percentage of horses that meet the stated goal. It also appears as if the eventers showed much better longevity than the dressage horses, and certainly more longevity than the bad press about the sport would indicate.

The hard part is interpreting these sorts of results and further research is likely required, but asking the questions and learning that one’s perceptions may not be that accurate is a good place to start.

Should talent be foremost or is longevity of equal or more importance? The bottom line is that the more accurately young horse competitions predict future talent and longevity, the better it is for horses, and for the industry in general. If you agree, will your voice on the subject be heard?

Judy Wardrope has spent nearly 30 years amassing research on the pedigrees of top performance horses and analyzing the functional aspects of equine conformation. She applied the findings from her research to her own sport horse breeding program, producing champions in dressage and the hunter ring as well as winners in show jumping and eventing. For nearly two decades, Judy has been a respected equine journalist, satisfying a growing demand for informative articles on both sport horses and racehorses. Her work appears in more than twenty equine publications internationally. For more information, visit www.JWEquine.com.